India & Epic Fury: A Structural Lens on Investing in India

Geopolitical crises have a way of collapsing time for investors.

When oil prices spike and shipping routes become uncertain, markets quickly assume the future has become harder to price. Investors reprice risk, analysts revise forecasts, and volatility returns.

The latest escalation in the Middle East has been no exception. Since Operation Epic Fury, both the Mumbai Stock Exchange and Wall Street have experienced declines across equities and Treasuries as Iran vows to continue the conflict. Yet the broader economic impact is likely to remain limited.

Goldman Sachs recently estimated that Epic Fury could reduce global GDP by around 0.3%, while pushing global inflation higher by roughly 0.5–0.6%¹ . Most of the pressure remains concentrated in energy markets, while global supply chains continue to function.

Historically, such episodes have served as stress tests for economies, separating those with structural depth from those whose growth depended on favourable conditions. For investors, volatility is an inevitable companion to such moments, but it is rarely the most instructive one. The more revealing question is which economies are structurally positioned to emerge from disruption with their growth trajectory intact—or stronger. This article examines India on three counts, offering a broader perspective on investment in India in periods of uncertainty.

First, India’s energy system is more resilient than commonly assumed.

India imports most of the crude oil it refines, which naturally makes markets sensitive to oil price movements. But the assumption that India’s economy moves in lockstep with oil prices is increasingly outdated.

Oil accounts for roughly a quarter of India’s total energy consumption. Coal, biomass, hydro, nuclear and renewables make up the majority of the energy mix. Over the past decade, India has expanded renewable and nuclear capacity significantly, with non-fossil sources now representing slightly more than half of installed power capacity, roughly double the comparable share in the United States.

Oil shocks can therefore create short-term macro pressure, but they do not translate into systemic energy vulnerability across the broader economy.

Second, India’s diplomatic strategy provides unusual geopolitical flexibility.

For decades, India has pursued a foreign policy built on optionality. Rather than aligning rigidly with a single geopolitical bloc, it has maintained working relationships across competing spheres of influence — engaging Washington, preserving ties with Moscow, maintaining dialogue with Tehran, and deepening partnerships with Gulf economies and that without mentioning their recent trade agreements with the EU amongst others.

This approach, often described as multi-alignment, reflects a simple principle: keep as many doors open as possible.

Energy security illustrates this clearly. By sustaining diplomatic channels across regions that are often politically at odds, India has preserved access to diverse suppliers and trade corridors even during periods of geopolitical tension.

India’s refining infrastructure reinforces this flexibility. The country operates some of the most complex refineries in the world, capable of processing a wide range of crude grades, including heavier oils such as those produced in Venezuela. When global supply flows shift, Indian refiners can pivot between suppliers more easily than many other markets.

In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape, this diplomatic agility provides a quiet but powerful form of resilience.

Third, India enters this period of volatility from a position of economic strength.

According to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook, India’s GDP is expected to grow by 7.3% in FY 2025–26, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Many Western economies, by contrast, face stagnation risks where geopolitical shocks can more easily tip fragile growth into recession.

For investors, that distinction matters. That’s why at RootBridge, our strategy is positioned around the long-term forces reshaping the Indian economy: the expansion of the middle class, rapid urbanisation, the formalisation of businesses, and the continued digitalisation of financial and commercial infrastructure. Our capital is deployed across multiple asset classes with meaningful exposure to private markets, where value creation follows operational growth rather than daily market sentiment. This allows us to stay anchored in India’s structural transformation while using episodes of macro uncertainty as opportunities to enter or scale positions on more attractive terms — an approach increasingly relevant when considering how to invest in India beyond traditional routes such as an India ETF or fully illiquid India private equity.

Short-term macro volatility, whether driven by oil prices or geopolitical tensions, therefore does not translate directly into portfolio volatility. If anything, market dislocations often create more attractive entry points across both public and private sectors.

India’s growth story has never been defined by a single external shock.

It is being shaped by something much larger, the scale of its domestic transformation.

For long-term investors, episodes like Epic Fury are best understood not as reasons to step back from India, but as entry points into that multi-decade transformation — reinforcing the broader case for investing in India.